There is a myth out there that professional athletes bring their “A” game in their contract year. Somehow they push that little bit more when there is money to be made. Taking a look at the UFA list for 2010 there are some big names (see below for the list).
So, the million dollar question (or multi-million dollar question) is:
Should you expect more from a player in their contract year?
First we should look at the UFA list from 2009 and see how they fared over their past two seasons:
Player – Age – 07/08 GP – PTS – 08/09 GP - PTS
Sundin - 38 - 74 - 78 - 41 - 28
Kovalev - 36 - 82 - 84 - 78 - 65
Spacek - 35 - 60 - 32 - 80 - 45
Sullivan - 34 - 57 - 60 - 41 - 32
Koivu - 34 - 77 - 56 - 65 - 50
Ohlund - 32 - 53 - 24 - 82 - 25
M. Samuelsson - 32 - 81 - 40 - 73 - 40
McDonald - 31 - 82 - 52 - 46 - 44
M. Hossa - 30 - 72 - 66 - 74 - 71
Gionta - 30 - 82 - 53 - 81 - 60
Cole - 30 - 73 - 51 - 80 - 42
Tanguay - 29 - 78 - 58 - 50 - 41
Franzen - 29 - 72 - 38 - 71 - 59
Antropov - 29 - 72 - 56 - 81 - 59
Zetterberg - 28 - 75 - 92 - 77 - 73
Havlat - 28 - 35 - 27 - 81 - 77
D. Sedin - 28 - 82 - 74 - 82 - 82
Connolly - 28 - 48 - 40 - 48 - 47
H. Sedin - 27 - 82 - 76 - 82 - 82
Gaborik - 27 - 77 - 83 - 17 - 23
Cammalleri - 27 - 63 - 47 - 81 - 82
Bouwmeester - 25 - 82 - 37 - 82 - 42
There is a definite pattern. Players over 32 had arguably better years a year before their contract year. Age certainly could be a contributing factor in the decline in productivity, however the fact they were in a contract year and didn’t even sustain their previous years levels proves the contract year hype is a hoax.
While no player under 32 had a huge spike in their numbers compared to the previous year, they as a group had better seasons then the year before. Zetterberg was the only glaring exception where his point total went substantially down, which I believe was an anomaly.
Below is a list of 2010’s high-profile UFAs, including their age:
Lidstrom (39), Ray Whitney (37), S. Neidermayer (36), Gonchar (35), Kariya (34), Nabakov (34), Turco (34), Demitra (34), Savard (32), Marleau (30), Jokinen (30), Tanguay (29), Ponikarovsky (29), Frolov (27), Plekenac (26) and Kovalchuk (26).
Fantasy impact:
Again look for the trend to continue. Players under 32 should improve on the previous years totals. As for players over 32, you shouldn’t be hoping for any special simply because they are in a contract year.
Brian
So, the million dollar question (or multi-million dollar question) is:
Should you expect more from a player in their contract year?
First we should look at the UFA list from 2009 and see how they fared over their past two seasons:
Player – Age – 07/08 GP – PTS – 08/09 GP - PTS
Sundin - 38 - 74 - 78 - 41 - 28
Kovalev - 36 - 82 - 84 - 78 - 65
Spacek - 35 - 60 - 32 - 80 - 45
Sullivan - 34 - 57 - 60 - 41 - 32
Koivu - 34 - 77 - 56 - 65 - 50
Ohlund - 32 - 53 - 24 - 82 - 25
M. Samuelsson - 32 - 81 - 40 - 73 - 40
McDonald - 31 - 82 - 52 - 46 - 44
M. Hossa - 30 - 72 - 66 - 74 - 71
Gionta - 30 - 82 - 53 - 81 - 60
Cole - 30 - 73 - 51 - 80 - 42
Tanguay - 29 - 78 - 58 - 50 - 41
Franzen - 29 - 72 - 38 - 71 - 59
Antropov - 29 - 72 - 56 - 81 - 59
Zetterberg - 28 - 75 - 92 - 77 - 73
Havlat - 28 - 35 - 27 - 81 - 77
D. Sedin - 28 - 82 - 74 - 82 - 82
Connolly - 28 - 48 - 40 - 48 - 47
H. Sedin - 27 - 82 - 76 - 82 - 82
Gaborik - 27 - 77 - 83 - 17 - 23
Cammalleri - 27 - 63 - 47 - 81 - 82
Bouwmeester - 25 - 82 - 37 - 82 - 42
There is a definite pattern. Players over 32 had arguably better years a year before their contract year. Age certainly could be a contributing factor in the decline in productivity, however the fact they were in a contract year and didn’t even sustain their previous years levels proves the contract year hype is a hoax.
While no player under 32 had a huge spike in their numbers compared to the previous year, they as a group had better seasons then the year before. Zetterberg was the only glaring exception where his point total went substantially down, which I believe was an anomaly.
Below is a list of 2010’s high-profile UFAs, including their age:
Lidstrom (39), Ray Whitney (37), S. Neidermayer (36), Gonchar (35), Kariya (34), Nabakov (34), Turco (34), Demitra (34), Savard (32), Marleau (30), Jokinen (30), Tanguay (29), Ponikarovsky (29), Frolov (27), Plekenac (26) and Kovalchuk (26).
Fantasy impact:
Again look for the trend to continue. Players under 32 should improve on the previous years totals. As for players over 32, you shouldn’t be hoping for any special simply because they are in a contract year.
Brian
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