Just Fantasy Hockey: Week 11 Forecaster

We are officially entering the half way point in most fantasy league schedules. The NHL has seen its first major move in the firing of John Stevens. The Olympics are only 67 days away and the trade deadline will be here before you know it. Before we get too far forward, let’s look at the week ahead.

4 Game Week: Atlanta, Buffalo, Calgary, Carolina, Colorado, Florida, Los Angeles, Minnesota, Montreal, New Jersey, Philadelphia, Tampa Bay, Toronto, Washington

3 Game Week: Anaheim, Chicago, Columbus, Dallas, Detroit, Edmonton, Nashville, New York Islanders, Ottawa, Phoenix, Pittsburgh, St. Louis, San Jose, Vancouver

2 Game Week: Boston, New York Rangers

Buffalo Sabres: vs. New Jersey, vs. Washington, vs. Chicago, @ New York Rangers.

There seems to be no stopping Ryan Miller this year, as he has all but locked up the starting role for the U.S at this year’s Olympics. Washington is the only opponent this week that could throw a hammer into the works, but it’s hard to question not playing a hot goalie. The Buffalo offence sits 25th overall in goals for and have no players playing at a point per game pace.

Fantasy Spin: Miller remains a must start in all fantasy formats as he boasts the best GAA in the league. Roy, Connolly, Pominville, Vanek and rookie Tyler Myers are leading the charge for the Sabres offensively, although they still struggle at times.

Toronto Maple Leafs: vs. Atlanta, vs. New York Islanders, @Boston, vs. Washington

Toronto possesses the NHL’s worst home offence. In 12 homes games so far this season, the Buds have only scored 22 goals. They lead the league in shots per game with 34.2, but that doesn’t amount to anything more than padding opposing goalies SV%. Kessel has been the only source of reliable Leafs offence since his return.

Fantasy Spin: Kessel has 10 goals in his 16 games this season, but only has 1 goal in his last 4 at the ACC. If your league has shots as a category, he is a must start. Kaberle leads all Leafs in scoring but owns a -7 plus/minus rating.

Philadelphia Flyers: @Montreal, vs. New York Islanders, @ Ottawa, vs. New Jersey

Since returning from their 5 game Western road trip, the Flyer offence has disappeared.
Recording 4 straight losses, two of which were shut-outs, the Flyers decided it was time for a change by firing their head coach. Philadelphia has extremely high expectations this year after trading for Chris Pronger in the off-season to mesh with a highly potent and young offence. They started the season off well, but have fallen on hard times as of late.

Fantasy Spin: This team has a ton of young offensive talent and are a tempting fantasy bunch, but until they find their way with coach Laviolette, they remain risky additions to your line-up. Richards, Carter and Pronger are guaranteed to continue to eat up ice-time regardless of their level of play. Be confident that the Flyers will snap out of this spell at any time and make an impact soon.

Washington Capitals: @Tampa Bay, @Buffalo, Carolina, @Toronto

The Capitals lead the league in goals per game and have the league’s best power play unit at a 24.3%. The Lightning, Hurricanes, Leafs and Sabres sit among the worst in the league in penalty minutes per game so far this year. With Ovechkin back from his two game suspension and Semin returning to his fine form the Capitals should be set for another huge offensive week.

Fantasy Spin: The Capitals offer a wealth of stars and some players on the rise. Activate all Capitals including Laich and Fleishmann as they continue to offer secondary scoring on the best offensive team. Theodore and Varlamov should split duties this week, each having two starts, dress them accordingly.

Brian

Just Fantasy Hockey: Week 8 Forecaster

Week 8 brings us another moderate week in the NHL schedule, allowing owners to choose from plenty of teams playing 3 games. With only 4 teams playing 4 games this week, owners in leagues that offer weekly roster changes will have to look at the best match ups available to maximize roster spots.

4 Game Week: Florida, Philadelphia, Phoenix, Tampa Bay

3 Game Week: Anaheim, Atlanta, Boston, Buffalo, Calgary, Carolina, Chicago, Colorado, Columbus, Dallas, Detroit, Edmonton, Los Angeles, Nashville, Montreal, New Jersey, New York Islanders, Ottawa, Pittsburgh, San Jose, Toronto, Washington

2 Game Week: Minnesota, New York Rangers, St. Louis, Vancouver

Teams to watch:

Pittsburgh: Anaheim, @Ottawa, @ Atlanta

This schedule couldn’t have come at a better time for Malkin and Crosby owners. With Malkin just back in the line up and Crosby breaking his pointless streak, the Penguins now face three teams that just cant keep the puck of out the net. The Ducks currently rank 26^th in total defence while Atlanta and Ottawa sit 18^th and 19^th respectively, so look for the Pens to capitalize.

Fantasy Spin: The Penguins have been banged up the last couple of weeks and are now slowly getting healthy. Look for Malkin and Crosby to lead the way with an extremely strong week.

Philadelphia: New Jersey, @Los Angeles, @San Jose, @Phoenix

The Flyers offer the best option for owners looking to take advantage of a team playing 4 games this week. Philadelphia has played 11 of its first 16 games at home and now embark on their first major road trip. They play 8 times in a 13 day stretch starting with New Jersey. Six of those 8 games are on the road.

Fantasy Spin: The strong Flyers offense will be tested in the upcoming week and Ray Emery should have a moderate week as he played extremely well over the past two weeks. Play all your Flyers this week but be weary of the long road trip ahead.

Atlanta: Boston, Pittsburgh, Tampa Bay

The leagues #1 offence entering week 8 has three home tilts on tap this week. Kovalchuk is the only big name on the Thrashers team but they offer many lesser “name value” guys who contribute on a fantasy level. Pavelec continues to post decent first year numbers with a 3.02 GAA and a .924 SV% over the last two weeks.

Fantasy Spin: Kovalchuk is a must start this week, while Peverly and Antropov have been hot of late and should get some consideration.

New York Islanders: @Boston, @Minnesota, @St.Louis

This week has serious fantasy value written all over it for Long Island. The Wild, Bruins and Blues sit 25^th, 26th and 28^th in goals per game giving Roloson and Biron an apparent easy week between the pipes. With Dipietro’s return on the horizon, the Islanders will be shopping Biron and will likely showcase his talents against weaker offensive teams to maximize his value.

Fantasy Spin: If you are looking for a cheap, good play in a league that has 2 Goalie spots, Biron is your guy. He will likely get 2 of the 3 starts this week and has been strong of late, putting up better GAA and SV% than Roloson.

Buffalo: Florida, Boston, @ Ottawa

The Sabres have the NHL's second best GAA and face three teams in the bottom half of total offense. Ryan Miller has been hot all year and should get all three starts this week.

Fantasy Spin: Miller is a must play this week and should continue to put up stellar numbers against teams that just cant seem to light the lamp.

Brian

Official: Kessel A Leaf

The Toronto Maple Leafs have traded a 2010 1st round pick, 2010 2nd round pick and a 2011 1st round pick to the Boston Bruins for the rights to Phil Kessel. Kessel then agreed to terms with the Maple Leafs on a 5 year deal worth $27 Million (5.4M cap hit).

The deal that has been talked about since the NHL draft has come to fruition. Brian Burke, who has preached about the re-build in Toronto, makes his boldest move yet - moving three high draft picks for a young, skilled 36 goal-scorer. Pessimistic Leafs fans will complain that Burke gave up to much but Kessel is only 3 years removed form being a top 5 draft pick and is proven...something you can't say about any of those future picks.

Here is a fantasy breakdown of the deal:

Phil Kessel:
Kessel is coming off a breakout year where he lit the lamp 36 times. Still only 21, Kessel could develop into one of the league's top snipers as he is lightning fast and has a great shot. "Phil the Thrill" made the Bruins in his draft year and has progressed in leaps and bounds since then. He has had to grow up fast after battling testicular cancer in his rookie year and then mono last year.

The move to Toronto could be good and bad for Kessel's fantasy value. In keeper leagues, he is a great pick-up, but be weary of not overvaluing him in standard leagues. Here's why:

1. The loss of Marc Savard
Kessel is coming off a career year where he played with one of the top playmakers in the NHL in Marc Savard. The Leafs don't have a playmaking pivot like Savard and their top centre Mikael Grabovski is a shoot 1st, pass 2nd type of centre.

2. Rehab
Kessel won't join the Leafs until November/December after having off-season rotator cuff surgery. Kessel is a shooter, which makes shoulder injuries that much tougher to come back from. He will likely take the first few months back to get fully comfortable on the ice.

3. Chemistry
As mentioned in point #1, the Leafs don't have many playmaking forwards to get Kessel the puck, and because of this, he could struggle to find chemistry with any of their top 6 guys. Of all the players on the Leafs current roster, the two most natural fits for Kessel would be youngsters Tyler Bozak and Nazem Kadri. Neither are guaranteed a spot on this year's team though which means Kessel could be spending his winter months isolated on the top line.

Fearless Forecast:
2009-2010 52GP, 21G, 17A, 38 Points
2010-2011 80GP, 38G, 36A, 74 Points

Again, Kessel will have a huge fantasy impact next year, just don't expect it this year. If you have him in your pool, shop him to your resident Maple Leafs homer who will surely overpay.

Get the Just Fantasy Hockey Forecaster for FREE with Kessel's updated fantasy value HERE, or click the top right logo for instant download.

Chris

NHL's Top Enforcers

In the world of the new NHL, the word enforcer or ‘goon’ has taken on a whole new meaning. The following list details the top 10 players that spend the most time in the box.

Rank – Name – Team – POS – GP – PIMS – PTS
1. Daniel Carcillo - PHI - LW - 74 - 254 – 14
2. Shane O'Brien - VAN - D - 77 - 196 - 10
3. Colton Orr - TOR - RW - 82 - 193 - 5
4. Zack Stortini - MIN - RW - 52 - 181 - 11
5. Jared Boll - CBJ - RW - 75 - 180 - 14
6. Eric Boulton - ATL - LW - 76 - 176 - 13
7. Riley Cote – PHI - LW - 63 - 174 - 3
8. Eric Godard - PIT - RW - 71 - 171 - 4
9. David Backes - STL - RW - 82 - 165 - 54
10. David Clarkson - NJD - RW - 82 – 164 -32

Of the above-listed players, only David Backes would be considered a candidate to be drafted in the early middle rounds of your draft. At 25, Backes is a legitimate enforcer with a knack for scoring goals, as well. Second with the Blues in scoring last season, Backes should once again have similar numbers to last season.

David Clarkson is another great option to draft in later rounds of your pool as he contributes both in scoring and with his fists. He should see increased ice time in New Jersey next season and contribute more on the score sheet.

The remaining members of the list offer limited ability to score points but offer much more value in the PIMs department. The above-noted players should be available in late rounds of your draft or even on the waiver wire.

Mark