Just Fantasy Hockey - Week 5 Rookie Report

It's Tuesday, time for the JFH Rookie Report.

John Tavares (C), NYI - 10GP, 3G, 4A, 7PTS
Tavares has slowed down of late, going pointless in his past 4. The bad news for JT owners is that his ice-time has also decreased as he has averaged roughly 18 minutes on the ice over the past 5 games. That is down on his over 20 minutes from the first 5 games.
Fantasy Impact:
The 18 year-old has shown that he is human afterall. He'll have his ups and downs throughout the year, just don't get too high or too low on him and do something you'll regret. At the end of the year, 65-70 points is a strong possibility.

Ryan O'Reilly (C), COL - 11GP, 2G, 8A, 10PTS
The hottest of all the freshman, O'Reilly has 6 points in his last 4 and points in his past 7 games (9). His ice-time has also gone up and he played a season-high 20:13 on Saturday night. The Avs love the progress O'Reilly has made in transitioning to the NHL game and are giving him the opportunity to blossom.
Fantasy Impact:
While O'Reilly is red hot, he doesn't have a scorer's pedigree. His career-high in points with Erie (OHL) was 66 in 68 games. Hard to imagine him coming close to a PPG at the NHL level this year. Sell a fellow owner on O'Reilly's hot start and you'll be happy when he slows down in a few weeks.

Niklas Bergfors (RW), NJ - 9GP, 2G, 3A, 5 PTS
With 3 points in his past 2 games, Bergfors is showing the Devils why they drafted him 23rd overall in the '05 Draft. Niklas has spent the past 4 years adapting to the North American game in the AHL. He received over 17 minutes of ice-time in back to back games last week, showing that the Devils feel his game has finally matured enough to become a reliable NHLer. Playing on an effective line with Clarkson and Zubrus, the Devils are setting this youngster up for success.
Fantasy Impact:
Bergfors has great offensive instincts and can be a productive scorer if he sticks on the Devil's 2nd line. Not as heralded as some of the other rookies, Niklas could be just as valuable the rest of the way. If he is a FA, pick him up, especially in keeper leagues.

Michael Grabner (RW), VAN - 6GP, 2G, 3A, 5PTS
With injuries to Daniel Sedin and Pavol Demitra, Grabner is getting the opportunity to show his talent. The young Austrian has responded well with 4 points in his past 3 games. Playing on a lightning quick line with Ryan Kesler and Mason Raymond, Grabner is making the most of his audition.
Fantasy Impact:
The 14th overall pick in the 2006 Draft, Raymond has high-end offensive skills and speed to burn. He could be a nice find for the Canucks, and your fantasy team.

Michael Del Zotto (D), NYR - 12GP, 4G, 8A, 12 PTS
While we thought Del Zotto would start to slow down, he has actually heated up. The 19 year-old rearguard has 7 points in his last 6 games and has seen his ice-time steadily increase, playing a season high 20:14 against NJ last week. His 12 points is tops among all rookies and tied with Dan Boyle for the league lead among all Dman.
Fantasy Impact:
We still think it will be impossible for Del Zotto to keep this pace up. That said, he may be more advanced than we thought. You may want to ride him out through his first tough stretch (it will happen) and see how he recovers. He could end up being a great keeper DMan by the end of the year.

Other notables:
A slow week for Dallas winger Jamie Benn with just 1 goal in his past 3. Flyers winger James van Riemsdyk has 4 points in his past 4. Rangers Centre Artem Anisimov has 2 goals in his past 2 games while continuing to get minimal ice-time. Pre-season sleeper LW Ville Leino has just 1 assist in his past 5 games with the Red Wings. TB D Victor Hedman is pointless in his past 4.

Chris

Training Camp Notes: September 20th

Artem Anisimov, (C) NYR - Anisimov was one of my big sleepers coming into this season. The 6-3 Russian Centre put up 81 points in 80 AHL games last year, as a 20 year-old. He has great offensive insticts and developing speed/power. Head coach John Tortorella has already called Artem out as a candidate for the Blueshirts vacant #1 Centre job. How did he respond? A highlight reel goal and an assist last night in 16:27 of icetime. Take a flyer on Anisimov, he could pay off and become this year's Kris Versteeg.

Brayden Schenn, (C) LA - The "other Schenn" made a big impact last night. The 5th overall selection in June's draft scored two goals for the Kings who beat the Ducks 4-1. Schenn played in all situations last night and has a decent shot at cracking the opening night roster. Maybe the most complete forward coming out of the draft, he could have some fantasy impact if he sticks with the Kings. Don't expect big point totals for another year or two though.

Nick Foligno & Mike Fisher, (LW & C) OTT - Ottawa made the Heatley trade with the hopes of acquiring some scoring depth. Well Foligno and Fisher aren't ready to be demoted to the third line quite yet. The pair combined for 8 points last night, led by Fisher's 3 goals. Both players are capable of producing during stretches but need to find consistency in their game. If he stays healthy (a BIG if), Fisher could lead the Sens 2nd line, surrounded by Alfreddson and one of Cheechoo/Michalek/Foligno. Based on that landscape, he could be primed for a career year of 50+ points. Foligno is out to prove he is more then just a 3rd liner. Look for him to top 20 goals this year and get some time on one of the top 2 lines.

Nikita Filatov, (LW) CLB - Filatov needs to impress this pre-season if he wants to stick with the Big club. Last night did not help his cause. Nikita received 17:05 of ice-time, and led the team in powerplay ice-time. The results, no points, 1 shot. Hitchcock needs more then that if he is going to give the youngster a spot on the top 6. Watch this situation carefully as Filatov has said he would rather go back to Russia then spend another year in the AHL.

Cody Hodgson, (C) VAN - Hodgson scored his first goal of the pre-season last night, though it was an empty-netter. The Canucks gave Hodgson just under 15 minutes of ice-time but over 3 of that was on the powerplay. It looks like Vancouver wants Hodgson to break in on the 3rd or 4th line and work his way up. This could limit his fantasy value this season, but he is still a stud in keeper formats.

Michal Neuvirth, (G) WAS - Neuvirth, the other goaltender picked high in the 06 draft (Varlamov was selected in the 1st, Neuvirth early 2nd), played a strong game last night against the Hawks. He gave up two goals in 26 shots and made several big saves. Varlamov enters the season as the #1 goalie but the rookie still has some flaws in his game. Neuvirth could surprise many and be the Caps #1 goalie by mid-season. Watch him closely and grab him if Varlamov stumbles.

Chris

Fantasy Q & A - Kadri a Keeper?

Question from Dale:

Hey guys,

I really liked what I saw from Nazm Kadri last night in the Leafs pre-season game, as well as Andrew Angelage a few nights earlier in a rookie game. Both have had successful OHL careers and might show something in the near future for the Leafs. I think Kadri looked very much like a young Russ Courtnall considering the speed and size comparisons.

What are your thoughts on Kadri? Who is he comparable to?

And what about Angelage? I could really see him shine in the near future given the Leafs goaltending struggles in the past few years. He reminds me of Sean Burke.

- Dale

JFH Response:

Hey Dale,

Thanks for the question.

I was a little surprised when the Leafs grabbed Kadri at 7th overall. While he is known as a fiesty, talented forward, I thought Burke was going to draft Jared Cowan and continue to "build from the net out." That said, I have been impressed with the pick ever since. Kadri has top-end skill, something we haven't seen a lot of in Toronto over the years. I think Russ Courtnall was one-dimensional, where I see Kadri being much more of a complete player. He reminds me a lot of Doug Gilmour/Pavel Datsyuk - an undersized, shifty forward that can always create something.

Offensively, only Tavares and Duchene have a higher ceiling coming out of the 2009 Draft then Nazem. He has looked great in two pre-season games but expect him to go back and lead the London Knights this year. He also should play a pivotal role on the Canadian Junior team this December. Grab Kadri if you are in keeper leagues as his value may skyrocket with a dominant season in the OHL.

As for Andrew Englegage, the former Windsor Spitfire goaltender has turned a few heads at Leafs camp. Invited to camp after backstopping the Spitfires to the Memorial Cup, Englegage has shown that he is more then the product of a great team. He has good size and poise. I think he will get himself a contract and start in the Central Hockey League. Keep an eye on him but he has no fantasy value at this point, keeper or not.

Chris

Mailbag: Draft Prospects

"Hi Guys, I'm in a 12 team keeper league. We have 7 stat categories for skaters :Goals (G), Assists (A), Plus/Minus (+/-), Penalty Minutes (PIM), Powerplay Points (PPP), Shots on Goal (SOG) and also we have 6 goalie stat categories: Goals Against (GA), Goals Against Average (GAA), Saves (SV), Save Percentage (SV%), Shutouts (SHO).

We have a 5 round prospect draft coming up, I currently own 3 first round picks (third, sixth, twelve overall) and 1 fourth round pick 42nd overall. The GM with 1st overall has already announced he will draft Tavares, which will leave me with either Hedman or Duchene. My question to you is? Who should I draft with my other 1st round picks? Realistically I'm thinking for 6th about Brayden Schenn, Oliver Ekman-Larsson, Jonas Gustavsson and for 12 it's between Ryan Ellis and Cody Hodgson (I think he's able to be drafted since he wasn't drafted last year) But I want to know what you would do. Here is my roster.

Centres - Mike Modano, Travis Zajac, Manny Malhotra, Steve Ott
Left Wings - Alexei Ponikarovsky, Henrik Zetterberg(C, LW), David Booth, Alex Burrows
Right Wings - Martin Havlat, Ales Kotalik, Joffrey Lupul, Mikael Samuelsson, Jamie Langenbrunner
Defensemen - Andrei Markov, Zdeno Chara, Shane O'Brien, Paul Martin, Alex Edler
Goalies - Mike Smith, Marc-Andre Fleury

We are aloud 2 centres, 2 right wingers, 2 left wingers, 4 defenceman 1 winger 1 forward 2 utility 2 goalie 4 bench.
Sorry It's kind of long, really appreciate your time!"

Blair

Blair, thanks for the detailed email. Your strategy for your prospect draft seems to be right on target. For the third pick overall Hedman or Duchene is a great selection as each player has a bright future ahead of them. While Duchene offers to help you in many categories as a long term keeper, Hedman is an impact player that has been compared Nicklas Lidstrom and is a mature player at such a young age.

With your sixth overall pick I would target Cody Hodgson. His stock has greatly increased since being drafted last year and has the greatest chance at making an immediate impact. Presently he is slated to be the Canucks number two center and will get the opportunity to play on the powerplay as well.

Evander Kane is a player that you should target with your last first round selection if he should fall. While he is still or two away from playing a full time gig in Atlanta, his style of play offers poolies rewards in many of the categories you have listed. Although Gustavsson is a great selection if he is available with this pick, he is slated as a back-up in Toronto and may struggle to adapt to the NHL.

Mark